Reform Sequencing Under Democratic Stress: Institutional Memory, Distributional Legitimacy, And Reform Resilience In Nigeria (2023–2026)
1. Aliu, Olusola Ph.D., 2. Sarumi, Oyewole Ph.D.
Volume 6, Issue 1, April 2026
This paper explains why reform sequences implemented under democratic stress sometimes become durable while others fragment or reverse. It conceptualises Nigeria’s 2023–2026 reform episode as a reform-sequencing model, referred to in domestic discourse as “Tinubunomics”, and develops a mechanism-based explanation of reform resilience. The central argument is that reform durability depends on the interaction between institutional memory and distributional legitimacy. Front-loaded reforms generate immediate welfare pressures that shape contestation and compliance. At the same time, institutional memory, expressed through rules, routines, and coordination structures, determines whether policy decisions are converted into durable commitments. Reform resilience emerges where legitimacy constraints are managed, and implementation is routinised; where either mechanism is weak, reforms remain vulnerable to drift or reversal. The paper employs theory-testing process tracing using policy documents and time-aligned organisational indicators to evaluate causal process observations across six critical junctures. Reform resilience is operationalised as institutionalisation under contestation, while distributional legitimacy captures acceptance–contestation dynamics shaped by fairness, mitigation credibility, and trust. The paper makes three contributions. First, it advances a generalisable framework for analysing reform sequencing under democratic stress. Second, it integrates institutional memory and distributional politics into a unified explanation of reform durability. Third, it demonstrates how welfare shocks and legitimacy dynamics condition institutionalisation outcomes in resource-dependent contexts. The findings have implications for reform design in environments characterised by distrust, insecurity, and policy complexity, highlighting the central role of mitigation credibility, coordination capacity, and institutional anchoring in sustaining reforms.